17 Books Like Judgment under Uncertainty

Deming showed me how to think about organizational performance improvement. I was moving from a clinical psychologist in private practice to an organizational psychologist helping companies develop change strategies. I had studied and loved statistical variation in the context of scientific research, but not in the context of addressing real-world challenges. 

But Deming does something very surprising. He starts by understanding variation and then moves on to understanding organizational culture. Not the theoretical frameworks we all know, but the work world from the view of the front-line employee. Deming’s insight is that the central challenge of culture change is understanding the view of people closest to the work, the ones who perform operations.

They are not motivated by slogans and lofty ideas but by producing great products and services. Taking pride in the work they are doing is central to performance; lost by management fads and enhanced by doing it… show more.

How do you know if a medication is effective, or if a training method does what you want it to do, or if a change in the employee selection process results in improving the hit rate? This amounts to understanding the relationship between variables. This is the domain of experimental methods, an area that experimental psychology excels in. 

I read this book as an undergraduate. It made me love the precision, the elegance, and the utility of the experimental method. Oh, if the journalists who write about polls, likely outcomes from legislation, public health problems, oh, if they had just read this book! The amount of confusion and misinformation still flying around about COVID, the effect of policy changes on economic variables, the increases or decreases in crime, suicide, and homicide rates, none of this can be understood properly without knowledge of experimental methods. 

And this is a book written… show more.

Psychology is easy to misunderstand. When I decided it was going to be my undergraduate major, it was because I wanted to understand how the mind worked, broadly, what makes people tick, and how they can be guided or helped when they get stuck or have problems. I assumed this knowledge existed and that majoring in psychology would reveal it to me. 

I was more than surprised when I attended my first psychology class. The professor sat cross-legged on top of a desk. He had long hair and a beard (unusual in 1963), and he spoke as if he had just taken a drug, which he likely had. He used profane language, the first time I had heard that word in a public place. He blathered for about 30 minutes, saying nothing of importance to the subject I was interested in. 

I stayed in the class and continued the major… show more.

Humor is often overlooked in organizational life, but it shouldn’t be, especially when the leader can laugh at themselves. Often, a genuine insight is facilitated by the realization of a failing or missed opportunity that is actually funny, if you can see it from the right perspective. It might be ‘OMG I just did it again’, or ‘did I really say that’, or ‘I didn’t see the funny part until later’. 

This little book is a classic in philosophy. It gives deep psychological insight into the nature of humor, what it is, and what purpose it serves. I love it for several reasons: it sheds light on a part of the human experience that is crucially important, but most often overlooked; it offers a different way of looking at leadership shortcomings, and it gives insight that applies to organizational life as well as human relationships in general. 

Appropriate humor in… show more.

This is technically a textbook and isn’t marketed as a book you bring to the beach. But sometimes, it’s more satisfying to have the big ideas on a topic patiently explained to you in an orderly fashion than to try to pick them up from stories and arguments.

This paperback, coauthored by one of my graduate school teachers (Hastie), explains the famous discoveries by Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman on biases in human reasoning, which Kahneman presented in his bestseller Thinking, Fast and Slow (too obvious for me to include on my list). It also explains lesser-known but still fascinating discoveries and has helpful appendices for those of us who forget some of the basics of probability theory.

I loved this book because it completely changed how I think about decision-making. Kahneman’s exploration of how variability in judgment impacts everything—from hiring decisions to medical diagnoses—was eye-opening.

The concept of “noise” helped me better understand how unconscious biases and inconsistencies can impact even the most logical minds. As someone who works with neurodivergent individuals, this book gave me tools to identify and minimize noise in my own thinking processes. It’s a must-read for anyone who wants to fine-tune their decision-making skills and embrace clearer thinking.

I read a lot about the brain and how humans make decisions – and this book by David McRaney completely blew my mind.

Inspired by his own curiosity into why some people change their minds in incredibly drastic ways (like leaving a cult) when so many others remain stagnant. What is the difference? How can we use that insight to encourage better decision making and open mindedness?

David takes you on a journey of his own discovery with insights from experts, joining a team knocking on doors to understand voter polls, and so much more. The fundamental insights into how the brain is wired and how we can change our own minds (as well as those around us) is fascinating and a must-read for everyone who wants to be more influential.

This classic, from the 1980s, is a must-read for history buffs and those interested in international affairs. The author cites examples from ancient Greece to the 1970s, to demonstrate how empires and nations often make decisions that are detrimental to their long-term interests. I love this book for its writing style which is captivating, for the breath of its examples which range from ancient times to modern-day and for the recommendations this book gives not just for political leaders but those in business and other walks of life.

I learned from Gilovich the psychological mechanisms that drive us to believe things that aren’t true. We are pattern-recognizing machines, he tells us, designed to make sense of the data we perceive. But when that data is incomplete, ambiguous, or inconsistent, the mechanisms that normally yield correct inferences can lead us astray.

The most insidious mistakes we make are the ones we didn’t even realize we were making. This short book brilliantly shines a light on the thousands of “invisible” choices that we make in our work and our lives, but more importantly, the author guides us on how to begin correcting them.

Using examples and case studies, author David Dylan Thomas helps you bring awareness to three lenses of bias that are guaranteed to be affecting your work: how biases impact our own individual experiences and choices, how they wiggle their way into our teams and leadership structures, and how they get wired directly into the products and services we deliver. 

If you care about creating long-lasting and equitable results with your work, you need to read this book.