Here are 100 books that Fortune Tellers fans have personally recommended if you like
Fortune Tellers.
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I became an academic because I believe knowledge should serve the world. I'm driven by a commitment to responsibility, realism, and social good, even when it's uncomfortable. This list reflects my frustration with how often Western governments act confidently but without the right philosophies, systems, and knowledge in place. They lack imagination, organisation, and the ability to deal with crises, which populist movements are now exploiting. I've spent years researching failed interventions because I believe we owe it to others to do better. These books helped me understand the world more clearly, but also reminded me of our limitations and how hard it is to grasp the contexts we shape.
I’ve always known that IR theory is terrible at helping us predict anything. This book confirmed that instinct—and then gave me something better.
The book doesn't offer a grand theory of the world; it shows how careful, humble, context-driven thinking beats big ideas almost every time. I loved how it dismantled the myth of expert authority with one brutal line: "Human beings who spend their lives studying the state of the world…are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys."
It taught me to think in probabilities, to temper my overconfidence, and to focus on the details, not broad generality. In many ways, this has made me a worse “IR scholar”, but demonstrably much better at predicting events. This book is indispensable if you care about understanding policy outcomes, rather than just sounding clever. It sharpened the way I think about the future.
'A manual for thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it.' Daniel Kahneman, author of Thinking, Fast and Slow _________________________ What if we could improve our ability to predict the future?
Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it.
In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only…
A moving story of love, betrayal, and the enduring power of hope in the face of darkness.
German pianist Hedda Schlagel's world collapsed when her fiancé, Fritz, vanished after being sent to an enemy alien camp in the United States during the Great War. Fifteen years later, in 1932, Hedda…
Accurate and precise forecasting is essential for successful planning and policy from economics to epidemiology. We have been keen to understand why so many forecasts turn out to be highly inaccurate since making dreadful forecasts ourselves, and advising UK government agencies (Treasury, Parliament, Bank of England) during turbulent periods. As simple extrapolation often beats model-based forecasting, we have been developing improved methods that draw on the best aspects of both, and have published more than 60 articles and 6 books attracting more than 6000 citations by other scholars. Our recommended books cover a wide range of forecasting methods—suggesting there is no optimal way to look into the future.
A wonderful read on how weather forecasting has improved so dramatically since Robert Fitzroy’s initial efforts in 1859. The amazing developments in mathematical modelling of the climate and advances in super-computers are excitedly and clearly described, starting from Blum wondering how one week ahead it was possible to forecast that Hurricane Sandy would strike New York.
'Revelatory ... convey[s] the technical brilliance and political significance of an achievement that hides in plain sight' Telegraph
From satellites circling the Earth, to weather stations far out in the ocean, through some of the most ingenious minds and advanced algorithms at work today - In this gripping investigation, Andrew Blum takes us on a global journey. Our destination: the simulated models weather scientists have constructed of our planet, which spin faster than time, turning chaos into prediction, offering glimpses of our future with eerie precision.
This collaborative invention spans the Earth and relies on continuous co-operation between all nations…
Accurate and precise forecasting is essential for successful planning and policy from economics to epidemiology. We have been keen to understand why so many forecasts turn out to be highly inaccurate since making dreadful forecasts ourselves, and advising UK government agencies (Treasury, Parliament, Bank of England) during turbulent periods. As simple extrapolation often beats model-based forecasting, we have been developing improved methods that draw on the best aspects of both, and have published more than 60 articles and 6 books attracting more than 6000 citations by other scholars. Our recommended books cover a wide range of forecasting methods—suggesting there is no optimal way to look into the future.
When can we trust a forecast? Given how often forecasts end up being very wide of the mark, a degree of scepticism might well be warranted. Paul Goodwin provides an entertaining account of forecasting, arguing that intuition may serve us well in some settings, but that computer-based analysis of big data might be expected to prevail in others.
Whether it's an unforeseen financial crash, a shock election result or a washout summer that threatens to ruin a holiday in the sun, forecasts are part and parcel of our everyday lives. We rely wholeheartedly on them, and become outraged when things don't go exactly to plan.
But should we really put so much trust in predictions? Perhaps gut instincts can trump years of methodically compiled expert knowledge? And when exactly is a forecast not a forecast? Forewarned will answer all of these intriguing questions, and many more.
Packed with fun anecdotes and startling facts, Forewarned is a myth-busting guide…
Sine, a professor of creative writing, accompanies Sam, a neuroscientist, on a conference trip to a Hotel Castle. Sam wants to present a new device, the "monitor." Sine hopes to recover from tending to her mother who just passed away.
When they arrive, Sine is in a dream-like state. Real…
As a professional statistician, I am naturally interested in AI and data science. However, in our current information age, everyone, in all segments of society, needs to understand the basics of AI and data science. These basics include such things as what these disciplines are, what they can contribute to society, and perhaps most importantly, what can go wrong. However, I have found that much of the literature on these topics is highly technical and beyond the reach of most readers. These books are specifically selected because they are readable by virtually everyone, and yet convey the key concepts needed to be data-literate in the 21st century. Enjoy!
This book, by Nate Silver of 538 fame, explains in a straightforward manner why so many predictions by “experts,” from weather forecasts to sports outcomes to election polling to economics, ultimately prove wrong.
It relates to understanding the “signal,” the underlying science that is often revealed through trends and patterns in data, relative to the “noise,” the random or unpredictable variations always present in data. Silver also explains the concept of conditional probability, probability when provided with some relevant information, in an unusually clear manner.
The book reads more like a casual conversation with the author, rather than a statistics textbook.
UPDATED FOR 2020 WITH A NEW PREFACE BY NATE SILVER
"One of the more momentous books of the decade." —The New York Times Book Review
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction,…
I am a historian and economist who is fascinated by the intersection of the economy and culture. This started for me with the idea that economic ideas were shaped by the cultural context in which they emerged, which resulted in my book on the Viennese Students. Over time it has expanded to an interest for the markets for the arts from music to the visual arts, as well as the way in which culture and morality influence economic dynamism. Economics and the humanities are frequently believed to be at odds with each other, but I hope to inspire a meaningful conversation between them.
Biographies of economists can be dull and technical, but not if their subject is John Maynard Keynes. The flamboyant British economist was a member of the Bloomsbury Group of Virginia Woolf and E.M. Forster, married the famous Russian ballerina Lydia Lopokova, and had a group of followers known as the Cambridge circus. The great skill of Skidelsky is his ability to integrate the many facets of Keynes life, from the exciting intellectual milieu of Cambridge and the cultural milieu in London to the economic problems of war, peace, and the Great Depression. This book demonstrates in vivid terms that economics is done by economists with an underlying vision. In Schumpeter’s words that of Keynes was that of: “the arteriosclerotic economy whose opportunities for rejuvenating venture were in permanent decline.”
Robert Skidelsky's three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes has been acclaimed as the authoritative account of the great economist-statesman's life. Here, Skidelsky has revised and abridged his magnum opus into one definitive book, which examines in its entirety the intellectual and ideological journey that led an extraordinarily gifted young man to concern himself with the practical problems of an age overshadowed by war. John Maynard Keynes offers a sympathetic account of the life of a passionate visionary and an invaluable insight into the economic philosophy that still remains at the centre of political and economic thought.…
I’ve studied Smith and his Scottish contemporaries, off and on, for over fifty years. My whole professional career has been spent at Glasgow University where Smith was both a student and later professor. I thus have a personal affinity to him and his work, all the more so because his published writings were all trailed in his professorial classroom. While I have published extensively on Smith, the particular book of mine that I’ve selected was chosen because I wanted to distill all my scholarship into a volume that would be accessible to non-academics.
What was impressive about this book and what made me recommend it (on the back cover) was how it succeeded in covering the full range of Smith’s work while demonstrating that it possesses a common unifying thread.
The author has already written a learned treatment of Smith (based on his doctoral dissertation); this volume, as befits a designedly introductory book, is written without jargon, in careful, clear prose. While students will gain the most benefit (the purpose of the series of which it is a part), it is, as well as informative, accessible to anyone with an initial interest in Smith, which it will succeed in broadening and deepening.
Almost everyone has heard of Adam Smith, founding father of modern economics and author of Wealth of Nations. There is, however, much more to him than this.
This new introduction gives a crystal clear overview of the entirety of Smith's thought. It demonstrates how Smith's economic theories fit into a larger system of thought that encompasses moral philosophy, philosophy of science, legal and political theory, and aesthetics. Examining the central arguments of his major works, ranging from The Theory of Moral Sentiments to his lectures on jurisprudence and beyond, Smith's thought is explained in its full intellectual and historical context.…
In an age of splendor, a heretic king strips Egypt bare—forcing his queen to quell rebellion and plunging his children into a conspiracy against the crown.
Salvation in the Sun follows Nefertiti as she ascends the throne beside Pharaoh Amenhotep—soon to become Akhenaten—just as he declares war on Egypt’s ancient…
Roger E. Backhouse has been a Professor of Economics and the University of Birmingham (in the UK) for many years, specializing in the history of economic ideas, and has written several books on contemporary economics and where the ideas came from. Knowing that many people lose interest when economics gets technical, he has picked biographies of modern economists who have led interesting lives as well as contributing to the development of their discipline, defining “modern” economists as ones who were active during his own lifetime, a criterion that excludes John Maynard Keynes, on whom several outstanding biographies have been written.
In the 1950s and 1960s, J. K. Galbraith was probably America’s most famous economist. A Canadian, whose career began as an agricultural economist, Galbraith achieved notoriety in the United States as Director of the wartime Office of Price Administration, until he was forced to resign. He was one of the economists responsible for spreading Keynesian ideas in America, and became active in the Democratic Party, and a close friend and adviser to President John F. Kennedy. He was the author of a string of best-sellers: American Capitalism, The Great Crash:1929, The Affluent Society, and The New Industrial State, as well as a talented essayist and speech-writer, coining phrases that have become well known, including “the conventional wisdom” and “private wealth and public squalor.” Holding radical political views, he became an outsider to an economics profession that increasingly turned away from his non-technical literary style. Parker has…
Higher education is a strange beast. Teaching is a critical skill for scientists in academia, yet one that is barely touched upon in their professional training-despite being a substantial part of their career. This book is a practical guide for anyone teaching STEM-related academic disciplines at the college level, from graduate students teaching lab sections and newly appointed faculty to well-seasoned professors in want of fresh ideas. Terry McGlynn's straightforward, no-nonsense approach avoids off-putting pedagogical jargon and enables instructors to become true ambassadors for science.
For years, McGlynn has been addressing the need for practical and accessible advice for college…
I was born in southern Entre Ríos, Argentina, where my father worked as a beekeeper. From an early age, I witnessed how external markets and unpredictable weather shaped livelihoods—long before I had the words to describe these forces. Later, at the University of Buenos Aires, I developed a deep passion for understanding political and social change in a country undergoing the process of consolidating democracy while facing recurrent economic crises and institutional tensions. My experiences in Spain and Switzerland further enriched my perspective, teaching me the importance of context as well as collective action. Curiosity and commitment have been the driving forces behind my research ever since.
I love this book because it captures Albert O. Hirschman’s extraordinary life—full of adventure, intellect, and a deep commitment to understanding change. His global perspective and relentless curiosity inspire me. What fascinates me most is his willingness to refine his ideas, embracing uncertainty with a 'bias for hope.'
This book isn’t just about a thinker—it’s about a way of seeing the world, making it especially timely for those who seek to connect deep reflection with political and social action.
Worldly Philosopher chronicles the times and writings of Albert O. Hirschman, one of the twentieth century's most original and provocative thinkers. In this gripping biography, Jeremy Adelman tells the story of a man shaped by modern horrors and hopes, a worldly intellectual who fought for and wrote in defense of the values of tolerance and change. This is the first major account of Hirschman's remarkable life, and a tale of the twentieth century as seen through the story of an astute and passionate observer. Adelman's riveting narrative traces how Hirschman's personal experiences shaped his unique intellectual perspective, and how his…
Long before I studied economics, I remember being told in church that “money is the root of all evil.” Much later, when I was interviewing for my first professor-level position, I remember one of the interviewers saying, “I suppose everyone is interested in money.” We are not talking here about a fixation on accumulating money, but rather understanding the profound impact monetary policy has upon everyone in society. These readings show how pervasive the effects of bad monetary policy can be and how important it is to keep track of what is going on. Start with the first two chapters of Friedman’s Money Mischief and see if you can stop!
The enduring impact of Milton Friedman and his writings is ably captured in this volume.
Part II focuses on his monetary contributions and relates his writings to the policy actions of the Federal Reserve and many other recent and older episodes. Among these chapters, James Lothian offers a particularly compelling account of not only the evolution of Friedman’s work but also its impact on those around him. Eugene Lerner connects his Friedman-inspired early Civil War research to monetary developments after the global financial crisis in 2008.
Nobel Prize winner Robert Lucas makes a particularly revealing personal observation: “Friedman has no interest at all in what side you are on. You are expected to articulate a view of the effects of policies. How will it work? Who gains? Who loses?”
Milton Friedman is widely regarded as one of the most influential economists of the twentieth century. Although he made many important contributions to both economic theory and policy - most clearly demonstrated by his development of and support for monetarism - he was also active in various spheres of public policy, where he more often than not pursued his championing of the free market and liberty.
This volume assesses the importance of the full range of Friedman's ideas, from his work on methodology in economics, his highly innovative consumption theory, and his extensive research on monetary economics, to his views…
Born the heir of a master woodcutter in a queendom defined by guilds and matrilineal inheritance, nonbinary Sorin can’t quite seem to find their place. At seventeen, an opportunity to attend an alchemical guild fair and secure an apprenticeship with the…
Roger E. Backhouse has been a Professor of Economics and the University of Birmingham (in the UK) for many years, specializing in the history of economic ideas, and has written several books on contemporary economics and where the ideas came from. Knowing that many people lose interest when economics gets technical, he has picked biographies of modern economists who have led interesting lives as well as contributing to the development of their discipline, defining “modern” economists as ones who were active during his own lifetime, a criterion that excludes John Maynard Keynes, on whom several outstanding biographies have been written.
Joan Robinson is widely considered to be the woman who should have received the Nobel Memorial Prize in economics but never did. This book is the story about how she managed to forge a career as an economic theorist, at a time when such a career path was unusual, in the misogynistic environment of Cambridge. Not only did she succeed in writing a book that arguably changed the way firms and markets were analysed, but she also became involved in the Keynesian revolution. Her career did not just happen: it needed to be promoted and for that strategy was important. Aslanbegui and Oakes focus on the interpersonal interactions through which her career developed taking the story up to the outbreak of the Second World War, by which time she was established as one of the most distinguished economists at Cambridge.
One of the most original and prolific economists of the twentieth century, Joan Robinson (1903-83) is widely regarded as the most important woman in the history of economic thought. Robinson studied economics at Cambridge University, where she made a career that lasted some fifty years. She was an unlikely candidate for success at Cambridge. A young woman in 1930 in a university dominated by men, she succeeded despite not having a remarkable academic record, a college fellowship, significant publications, or a powerful patron. In The Provocative Joan Robinson, Nahid Aslanbeigui and Guy Oakes trace the strategies and tactics Robinson used…
