Will I love Superforecasting?

I’ve always known that IR theory is terrible at helping us predict anything. This book confirmed that instinct—and then gave me something better.

The book doesn't offer a grand theory of the world; it shows how careful, humble, context-driven thinking beats big ideas almost every time. I loved how it dismantled the myth of expert authority with one brutal line: "Human beings who spend their lives studying the state of the world…are poorer forecasters than dart-throwing monkeys."

It taught me to think in probabilities, to temper my overconfidence, and to focus on the details, not broad generality. In many ways,… show more.

This is a book that brings forecasters down to earth with a bang – we are not all super-forecasters! There is no magic involved in forecasting – seeing into the future is impossible. But Tetlock and Gardner show that good decision-making should be based on a set of guidelines that can be adapted to any situation. The writing is slick, given one of the authors is a science journalist, and it provides salutary reading for any would be practical forecaster. 

Superforecasting is the definitive work on the art and science of prediction. The approach of forecasting is to make very concrete, falsifiable predictions about the future, see which ones you are correct or incorrect about over time, and then improve your methods based on experience. The strategies in the book are used now on platforms like Metaculus to predict events that might be crucial to humanity’s long-run survival, like the probability of nuclear war in our lifetime. 

Philip Tetlock is a top psychologist and political scientist who studies, among other things, effective decision-making and forecasting in highly volatile environments. This book describes a research project he has been leading with the CIA (yes, that CIA), called the Good Judgement Project, to identify the best forecasters in the world today, and offers insights into how we all might be better able to make accurate decisions of our lives and our world. This is superb science and offers practical insights into how we can all better navigate the increasing complexity of our time.