Books like The New Classical Macroeconomics — picked by fans

During my graduate school years at Carnegie-Mellon University, I was exposed to Thomas Sargent’s Macroeconomic Theory, which taught me how to work with difference equations.

More importantly, it inculcated the notion in me that economic theory and econometrics are inseparable notions. The approach that I attained from this book together with the courses that I took at Carnegie-Mellon’s Graduate School of Industrial Administration - GSIA as it was called then – have colored by my research outlook and my research itself over the years.

While Thomas Sargent produced many other graduate textbooks on macroeconomics in future years, I might say this was the most influential one (for me) in terms of the fluidity of its writing and its attempt to bridge macroeconomic theory and empirical research. 

This choice is obvious and tough.

The book is notoriously difficult. However, it ranks with Darwin’s Origins of the Species, and Einstein’s General Theory of Relativity as among the most important and revolutionary books ever.

It’s no exaggeration to say that Keynes changed everything in the same way that Darwin and Einstein had. It will change the way you see the world if you make the substantial effort. Keynes argues that it is the organization of our economy around money that causes unemployment—not high wages or lazy workers.

Here’s my one sentence summary: firms only hire the number of workers they need to produce the output they expect to sell at a profit. If they cannot make money from hiring you, you are unemployed.

I read this wonderful book in the early 2000s when I had returned to Istanbul, Türkiye back from a professional position in the UK.

I was captivated by its description of the flora and fauna of our geography. I recall reading how the beloved chestnut trees of our region had made their way there from China. Braudel is an economic historian who is known to have placed physical and biological nature in the foreground of historical analysis. Thus, according to Braudel, nature is not merely space to be conquered or to be shaped by human desires.

Indeed, the organization of economic life in the Mediterranean was probably shaped by the diversity and difficulty of its geography as much as shaping it, as we argued in our article on Mediterranean business cycles published with Fabio Canova in Open Economies Review in 2013.   

Living in Istanbul over a long period since 1995 made me want to know its history better.

This book is one of best written and most influential books on the topic describing, as it does, not only the political and military history of the Ottoman Empire but also its economic and social fabric, its ability to innovate in a variety of fields and the reasons behind its rule over six centuries.

My interest in the topic eventually led to an influential publication with the economic historian Şevket Pamuk and our younger colleague Alpay Filiztekin in the European Review of Economic History in 2008 on the sources of economic growth for the region encompassing modern Türkiye between 1880-2005.      

Sargent shows how the monetary excesses leading to inflation have often been connected to using money to cover government budgetary shortfalls. This is vividly illustrated in chapter 3 by the way that ending the post-World War I hyperinflations required fundamental fiscal as well as monetary reform. 

Sargent also convincingly demonstrates the power of expectations and the idea that, as government behavior changes, people’s behavior adjusts as well.

You really cannot argue with the Ancient Chinese proverb included on the first page: “The government has strategies. The people have counterstrategies.” Amidst the rich trove of historical cases, my favorite remains chapter 6’s interpretation of the interactions between President Ronald Reagan and a recalcitrant US Congress in the early 1980s as a “game of chicken.” 

This book is more scientific, but very interesting if you like to dig more into the depth of money illusion backed by its experimental investigation.

The old concept of money illusion is updated and transformed into its modern version, which is built on the principle of strategic complementarity. In this case, even a negligible individual money illusion suffered by only few agents might multiply effects of money illusion at the aggregate level due to a well-known mainstream concept called coordination failure. Modern money illusion might be responsible for substantial effects at the aggregate level.

For me, this book is very appealing, since the non-neutrality of money in the short run is explained in an alternative way, but it does not deny standard rational expectations theory.

This book is unique in that, in clear language, it explains Keynes’ Theory of Employment, which created the present science of macroeconomics.

It was printed in 1948 and the following years, in English and 37 other languages. It still is, in my view, THE book about macroeconomics that every economist should read and try to understand. Nothing else comes even near it in clarity and exposure of the excellent work by Keynes.

Grappling with the meaning of money and unraveling its impact on prices or on the creation of wealth is enduringly controversial.

Fascination with money - to eyes or pockets - is universal. Fisher understood this!

He defined money simply as what is acceptable in exchange for goods: bills, coins, cheques - legal tender - or other forms of debt.

Since inflation, for Fisher, is a monetary phenomenon, and as in classical physics, where one matter is equalised to another, in his economics, money-on-the-move is always balancing products-for-a-price; in the long run, too much money or too little does not affect wealth creation but only the level of price.

Fisher is a ‘must read’ because this, his ultimate conclusion, deprived of his many subtleties, is the basis of present macroeconomics.

Take Hayek’s market economy as a Bohemian accordion orchestra.

As its instruments produce music, each elongates, pulls in air (analogous to money), and compresses, expresses air (money). Air-in (savings) is equal to air-out (investment). Fluctuating elongations and compressions are an essential feature of the orchestra (the economy).

For Hayek, interference with harmonious accordion (economic) activity infusing or restricting air (money) would spoil the music.

Economic fluctuations stem from preferences, spending for present enjoyment, or saving for future gains. Relative demands for end products or capital impact relative prices, costs, and returns, affecting savings/investment. Investment money, as IOUs, flies where returns are highest.

Hayek engages readers to prove that bank interventions’ tinkering with money is as capable of producing compassionate social outcomes as free individuals using their earnings as they wish.

This was an exciting reading for me. I find a great connection with Akerlof and Shiller’s book Animal Spirits.

This book admits, that people might have some cognitive limitations and use simple forecasting rules in order to make decisions with resulting implications at the aggregate level. As a result, there is great potential for the emerging, yet undiscovered discipline of behavioral macroeconomics.

Personally, for me, revolutionary element is the combination of bounded rationality and willingness to learn from past mistakes and consequent switch to better rules. This book introduces special behavioral macroeconomic model based on the dynamics of endogenous animal spirits, in which case waves of optimism and pessimism are responsible for the business cycle itself.

I find especially interesting the part devoted to the discussion of how central banks should approach inflation targeting in behavioral models with animal spirits.