My passion for helping organisations, industries, and communities to make better decisions led me into the field of strategic foresight more than 20 years ago. I am particularly passionate about scenario planning as the most valuable tool for improving decision-making in a volatile and uncertain environment. Scenarios enable people to question their (often implicit) assumptions about the future and to reframe their perceptions of the future. It’s this enlightening quality about scenarios that makes them so special to me. My quest is to see scenario planning become a mainstream activity in organisations throughout the world.
Peter Schwartz uses an easy, storytelling style that had me engaged instantly and held my interest throughout the book. He uses multiple personal case studies and stories to teach you how to think about the future. I found these stories both interesting and educational, as they were no doubt intended.
It’s a very easy and very engaging book to read. When people ask where they should start to improve how they think about the future, I point them to this book.
"Artful scenario spinning is a form of convergent thinking about divergent futures. It ensures that you are not always right about the future but-better-that you are almost never wrong about the future. The technology is powerful, simple, and enjoyable, and so is Schwartz's book." -Stewart Brand What increasingly affects all of us, whether professional planners or individuals preparing for a better future, is not the tangibles of life-bottom-line numbers, for instance-but the intangibles: our hopes and fears, our beliefs and dreams. Only stories-scenarios-and our ability to visualize different kinds of futures adequately capture these intangibles. In The Art of the…
I love this book because it forced me to think. Kees van der Heijden’s book is very detailed and provides a comprehensive outline of the complete scenarios and corporate strategy process. Consequently, I had to return to this book several times to fully comprehend his message.
The learning that took place made it worth the effort. Although contrasting in depth and writing style, this book is the perfect accompaniment to Peter Schwartz’s Art of the Long View.
Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and…
This book brings depth to the futures field, particularly showcasing Sohail’s knowledge about macrohistory and theories on patterns for long-term change.
I love this book because it conveys complex theories about the future and expresses these in an easy-to-read writing style. Shail’s great understanding of futures studies enables him to write in such a way that I found enjoyable as well as enlightening.
I love this book because it brings a new perspective to scenario planning. In particular, de Geus writes about “memories of the future” and how these are critical to developing sensitivity to weak signals that otherwise go unnoticed.
This book contains so many lessons about scenario planning, and de Geus provides greater detail on these than many authors. His writing style is casual and easy to follow, keeping the reader engaged from page 1.
Most companies do not survive the upheavals of change and competition over the long haul. But there are a few remarkable firms that have withstood the test of several centuries. What hidden lessons do they hold for the rest of us? Arie de Geus, the man who introduced the revolutionary concept of the learning organization, reveals the key to managing for a long and prosperous organizational life. The Living Company speaks not just to aspiring leaders, but to anyone trying to adapt to a turbulent business environment. Only those steeped in the habits of a living company will survive. 'This…
This is an outstanding read! Art Kleiner has undergone an enormous amount of research on so-called heretics of the business world in the 20th century. Kleiner is a great writer, and whether you have heard of the heretic in question or not, it doesn’t matter.
Kleiner’s storytelling and the depth of his research will keep you engaged as a reader. The section on scenario planning is why I was attracted to this book in the first place; however, the entire book is first class.
In this second edition of his bestselling book, author Art Kleiner explores the nature of effective leadership in times of change and defines its importance to the corporation of the future. He describes a heretic as a visionary who creates change in large-scale companies, balancing the contrary truths they can't deny against their loyalty to their organizations. The Age of Heretics reveals how managers can get stuck in counterproductive ways of doing things and shows why it takes a heretical point of view to get past the deadlock and move forward.
My book shows readers how to optimise business performance in a time of increasing market volatility and uncertainty. It describes a detailed process for understanding how change occurs, how to detect weak signals of change, and how to anticipate future market shifts, in order to optimise future organisational performance. Learnings about the future are outlined using multiple personal case studies, which are described in a relatable and engaging tone.
Rather than shy away from market uncertainty, this book stresses the point that uncertainty and impending market discontinuities provide the greatest opportunities for a step-change in organisational performance. Business leaders should therefore embrace such uncertainty, as it shows how to seize opportunities from uncertainty.
